2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets by proven model

A pair of evenly matched foes battle when the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks take on the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in Game 1 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series on Sunday in Los Angeles. The Mavericks (50-32), who were 25-16 on the road in 2023-24, are 31-21 against conference opponents. The Clippers (51-31), who were 25-16 at home, are 30-22 against the West. The Clippers won two of three games against Dallas during the regular season, including the lone matchup in Los Angeles.

Tipoff from the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Mavericks are 3-point favorites in the latest Mavericks vs. Clippers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 222. Before making any Clippers vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Clippers and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Clippers vs. Mavericks

Mavericks vs. Clippers spread: Dallas -3
Mavericks vs. Clippers over/under: 222 points
Mavericks vs. Clippers money line: Dallas -148, Los Angeles +125
DAL: The Mavericks have hit the game total under in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.10 units)
LAC: The Clippers have hit the team total under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.45 units)
Mavericks vs. Clippers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Mavericks can cover
Forward P.J. Washington is averaging 12.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and one steal in 73 games, including 45 starts. Washington registered his first double-double with the Mavericks after a 14-point, 13-rebound effort at Sacramento on March 26. He also recorded a team-high 32 points and a career-high five steals against Golden State on April 5. Washington became the second player in Mavericks history to have a game with at least 30 points, five steals and two blocks.

Also giving Dallas a boost is fifth-year veteran center Daniel Gafford, who is expected to play despite nursing a tender elbow. In 74 games, including 66 starts, he is averaging 11 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.6 assists in 24.5 minutes. In a 130-104 win at Charlotte on April 9, Gafford poured in 26 points, while adding seven rebounds and two blocks. He registered a double-double with 10 points and 15 rebounds in a 108-106 win over Golden State on April 5. See which team to pick here.

Why the Clippers can cover
Although listed as a game-time decision, Kawhi Leonard is Los Angeles’ leading scorer and has played in and started 68 games this season. In three games against the Mavericks, Leonard averaged 21.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists and one block in 32 minutes. He scored 20 or more points in nine of his final 10 games, including a 29-point effort in a 100-97 win at Orlando on March 29. For the season, he is averaging 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.6 steals in 34.3 minutes.

Forward Paul George is also a big part of the Clippers’ success. The 33-year-old has been dominant, reaching 18,000 career points in a 105-92 win at Phoenix on April 9. He is one of seven active NBA players with 18,000 points, 5,000 rebounds and 3,000 assists. In 74 games, all starts, George is averaging 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals in 33.8 minutes. He averaged 16.5 points, six rebounds and three assists in two games against Dallas this year. See which team to pick here.

How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 227 points. The model also says one side hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick and analysis at SportsLine.

So who Mavericks vs. Clippers, and which side hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Clippers vs. Mavericks spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

Clippers star out for Game 1 vs. Mavericks with knee inflammation

Los Angeles Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard will not be available for the team’s playoff opener against the Dallas Mavericks as head coach Ty Lue told reporters that Leonard will be out. Prior to Sunday’s press conference, Leonard was regarded as questionable. To that point, he hadn’t taken any contact in practice due to the swelling in his right knee.

Lue did not immediately name a replacement for Leonard. Additionally, Lue had no update as to whether Leonard will be available for Game 2 onward.

In the lead up to Game 1 president Lawrence Frank told reporters the following:

“Kawhi’s been dealing with inflammation for almost three weeks in his right knee; he’s doing everything, our medical staff is doing everything to get the inflammation down so he can play,” Frank said Thursday, via ClutchPoints’ Tomer Azarly. “Progress has been made, but more progress needs — the inflammation needs to continue to reduce so he can do functional basketball movements. We’re hopeful it’s going to get there.”

Frank said that Leonard, who hasn’t played since March 31, has done “the mental preparation part of it, the film study, the personnel review” at practice. When it comes to advancing to full-contact work, he said, the team is taking it day by day. On Sunday, Lue said that “we haven’t gotten that far yet,” when asked about Leonard’s availability to partake in contact work.

“Inflammation is unpredictable,” Frank said then. “We’d love to have a crystal ball and Kawhi would love to have a crystal ball and know exactly on this day, but you just control what you can control. And hopefully the inflammation reduces in a short amount of time and he’s back on the court. That’s the goal.”

Lawrence Frank’s opening statement on Kawhi Leonard:

“Kawhi’s been dealing with inflammation for almost 3 weeks in his right knee. He’s doing everything, our medical staff is doing everything to get the inflammation down so he can play. Progress has been made, but more progress,… pic.twitter.com/mc8JZTfZBN

— Tomer Azarly (@TomerAzarly) April 18, 2024
Leonard is dealing with “some very, very stubborn inflammation,” Frank said, via The Athletic’s Law Murray, but “everything structurally is in a really, really good place.”

Before Frank’s press conference, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported on Stadium (22:26 here) that Leonard “received an injection in his knee to alleviate inflammation” and “after a period of rest, he’s been ramping up.” Charania reported Leonard has been doing “some pretty intense” on-court workouts “in the last week or so.”

Asked about the report, Frank said, “We don’t comment on any specific treatments, obviously.” He added that Leonard is “doing everything he can and we’re doing everything we can medically.”

Frank directly said that “there is no gamesmanship here.” He said the Clippers “want to be as transparent as possible, and also it’s OK to say what the truth is: It’s unpredictable. We’re hoping it’s trending in the right direction.”

Once the swelling is at “an acceptable level,” Frank said, then Leonard can “start with on-court work, and then you continue to build up on it and you get to a point where, first from Kawhi’s standpoint and then from a medical standpoint, we’re comfortable where he can play in a high-level playoff game.” He repeatedly said that there needs to be less swelling before Leonard can do “functional basketball movements” and take contact.

At the end of March, Leonard had played in 68 of Los Angeles’ 74 games. He averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 34.3 minutes per game in the regular season, with .525/.417/.885 shooting splits, and he’ll likely be named to an All-NBA team. The fourth-seeded Clippers could contend for a championship this season, based on how they played from mid-November to early February, provided that Leonard is available, but they could also fall in the first round to the Mavericks, who finished the regular season much stronger.

“This guy lives for these moments,” Frank said. “He played 68 games this year, he’s done a ton of heavy lifting and he prepares himself to be his best when his best is needed. So he’s going to do, like he has, everything in his power to get on the court.”

Frank also cautioned that, “obviously, if he’s not healthy to play at a certain moment, then he won’t be out there.”

Given that Leonard tore the ACL in his right knee in the 2021 playoffs, an injury that cost him the entirety of the following season, and then tore the meniscus in the same knee in last year’s playoffs, an issue with this specific knee is surely the last thing the Clippers wanted to be dealing with. This is where they are, though, and they must simply hope that Leonard can successfully ramp up, suit up and hold up.

“There’s no one who’s more frustrated than Kawhi, who desperately wants to be out there to play,” Frank said. “You just control what you can control.”

2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets by proven model

The No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks and the No. 6 seed Indiana Pacers battle in Game 1 of their first-round matchup of the 2024 NBA playoffs on Sunday evening. The Bucks have a home-court advantage and are looking to take control of this series with a win. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the East this season at 31-11. However, the Bucks are expected to be without superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) in this matchup.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Indiana is the 1-point favorite in the latest Pacers vs. Bucks odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 231.5. Before making any Bucks vs. Pacers picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Pacers and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Pacers vs. Bucks:

Pacers vs. Bucks spread: Indiana -1
Pacers vs. Bucks over/under: 231.5 points
Pacers vs. Bucks money line: Indiana -120, Milwaukee +100
IND: The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Milwaukee
MIL: The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games
Pacers vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Bucks can cover
Forward Khris Middleton will have to step up but he’s shown he’s capable of that in the past. Middleton has a nice jumper from the outside to space the floor and can score off the dribble. The 32-year-old averaged 15.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He scored 17-plus points in two straight games to end the regular season. In his last outing, Middleton had 17 points and five assists.

Center Brook Lopez stands at 7’1 but is a floor spacer. Lopez can shoot from 3-point range with ease while being a serious shot blocker. The Stanford product logged 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game during the regular season. Additionally, he shot 36% from beyond the arc. In the Jan. 3 game against the Pacers, Lopez dropped 16 points, five boards, and knocked down two 3-pointers. See which team to pick here.

Why the Pacers can cover
Center Myles Turner makes things difficult on opposing players in the paint. Turner brings elite rim protection to the lane while owning the bounce to rise up for dunks. He also has the jumper to hit 3-pointers. The Texas product averaged 17.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per contest. Additionally, he made 35% of his 3-point attempts. On April 14, Turner finished with 31 points, 12 boards, and four blocks.

Forward Aaron Nesmith is a great swingman and two-way threat. Nesmith continues to be very active off the ball as both a cutter and perimeter shooter. The Vanderbilt product runs with tremendous effort as a defender. He put up 12.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and shoots 41% from downtown. Nesmith dropped 15-plus points in three of his last five games. In the April 12 loss to the Cavaliers, he totaled 15 points and six rebounds. See which team to pick here.

How to make Pacers vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 233 points. The model also says one side hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Pacers, and which side hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.